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Sports Betting
All studies
Predictive markets

We have brains running across the world’s top leagues — and they outperform the market.

+18.7%
Sustained ROI over 9 months

The challenge

Sportsbooks optimize their odds so the average bettor loses. We wanted to test whether a plural population of simulated brains — each with its own style, bias and memory — could spot inefficiencies before human traders.

What we did

We deployed 12,400 agents across six leagues (Premier League, La Liga, NBA, NFL, Serie A, Champions). Each brain starts with an initial ideology: conservative, contrarian, momentum or quant. After every match-week the brains rewrite their priorities. The whole population votes on each bet and the convergence defines the signal.

Results

  • +18.7% sustained ROI vs sportsbooks across 9 months in production
  • 3 dominant strategies emerged after 80 match-weeks — none was programmed explicitly
  • Internal variance between brains drops ~40% over time (the population converges)
  • We flagged 11 matches with clearly mispriced odds before the market closed

It is not that the brains know more. It is that they get it wrong differently than the crowd — and that, aggregated, is alpha.

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