We simulated the collapse of the Mesoamerican reef under 4 warming scenarios

The challenge

Conservation organizations needed to predict how rising temperatures would affect biodiversity in tropical regions. Existing models were too simple to capture inter-species interactions.

What we did

We simulated a full ecosystem with 10,000 interacting species: predators, prey, pollinators, plants. Each organism had autonomous behavior based on its biology. We varied temperature from +1C to +4C and watched the extinction chains.

Results

• —3 cascade extinction chains identified that linear models missed
• —7 keystone species whose loss triggers ecosystem collapse
• —Critical conservation map prioritized by impact
• —Data adopted by 2 NGOs for their 2027 protection strategies